Tagged: Hall of Fame

2017 Baseball Hall of Fame Projections

I love Hall of Fame speculation. Good piece here from Deadspin, which owes much of the speculation to inimitable Ryan Thibbs at the BBHOF Tracker. And nobody asked me, but here are my comments:

Jeff Bagwell 93.3% – good. deserves it. .297, MVP, ROY, 449 hr, 1529 rbi, 202 sb
but here are his comps (more later):
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Tim Raines 90.4% – easy. 
 
Ivan Rodriguez 85.2% – easy BUT .296, 311hr, 1332rbi. one MVP and no other finishes better than 10th.   and for all of this talk about what a stalwart defensively he was, how ironic is this – ‘advanced’ defensive metrics, which obviously didn’t exist to this extent in his day, have him slightly better than average defensively. can’t have it both ways. hmm. here are his career Offensive WAR & Defensive WAR (Tex/Det two line items)
 
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don’t get me wrong. He’s an HoFer. I just don’t think, including steroid allegations, he’s a first-ballot guy.  Not if Piazza wasn’t.
 
Vladimir Guerrero 77.0% my absolutely doggity dog doggggggg but i had to do a fair deep-dive into the numbers. not sure he gets in this year after seeing this vote total, and i had to know why. here’s why:
 
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great comps, right? right. but, but. . .there’s todd helton. and andres galarraga. and well, i’m the first guy to say Beltran isn’t an HoFer. . .but still – if he’s putting up colorado numbers outside of colorado, isn’t that case closed? oh, is it? well – here’s a SUPER interesting black mark for me:
Black Ink Batting – 6 (358), Average HOFer ≈ 27

“Black ink” are times leading the league. in anything. Six times, Vlad? Hmm. What were those career numbers? 

.318, 449hr, 1496rbi, 181sb (with 94 cs!!!). great player. GREAT player. but i can live with him not being a first-ballot guy.
 
Barry Bonds 71.1% – love this. should be in. no conversation necessary.
 
Roger Clemens 71.1% – see above, though pre-emptive footnote in my schilling argument below. 
 
Trevor Hoffman 71.1% – ugh. fine. WHIP was 1.05 and averaged 9.4 Ks/9. Saves total of 601 is pretty hard to marginalize. I mean, I’m the first guy to say ‘anybody can close for a year or two’ (Keith Foulke, Jeff Shaw, we’re looking at you) but seriously 30 saves/year for 20 years extrapolated here is amazing. fine. you happy?!?!?! still, for me 1089 career innings is pretty wispy. 
 
Edgar Martinez 68.9% – stop tormenting me, man! why do people love this guy’s candidacy so much????!?!? look, for me it’s not even the whole ‘he was a DH and you can’t hold it against him’ thing. it’s that .312 and 2247 hits are not that impressive. that’s a swell career. but you know where that ranks on the all-time hits list? 170th. i know because i made a google doc about it. he’s right between Bert Campaneris and John Olerud. I mean, definitely some legit guys on this list but, um. Not Hall of Famers, all.
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Mike Mussina 63.0% I’m all in on this guy now. He’s getting in. 270 wins is massive.  Don’t love the 3.68 ERA but 1.19 WHIP in that era is just fine for me.  Never won a Cy but 9 top-10 finishes is great. go get ’em, Moose.
 
Curt Schilling 53.3% He’s being ‘punished’ for what he’s saying, and  i’m the first guy to ‘hate’ on that kind of hatred, heh. that said, similar to Clemens (above), the ‘off-the-field’ will be forgiven. he’s getting in.  Especially after Moose gets in. Better ERA (3.46), superior 1.13 WHIP, 3 second place finishes and well, the bloody sock. His comps are underwhelming, but this doesn’t take into account postseason:
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but guess what? when he was good, he was great:
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and outside of players discussed in the Deadspin article, here’s the live Tracker:
Jeff Kent 11.1% speaking of punished, this guy and Sheffield are the two guys that are unfairly maligned due to perceived difficulty, personality-wise. they’re both winners, so there’s one irony. secondly, i mean look at this: .290, 377hr, 1518rbi. first all-time in dingers for 2b, 3rd all time in RBI – behind a couple guys named Hornsby and Lajoie. Cmon, folks. shut up and mark the ballot.
 
Fred McGriff, 12.6%  Bagwell is a shoo-in, right?
Here are Crime Dog’s numbers: 
Career: 493 HR (28th), .284 BA, 1550 RBI (46th)
Now let’s review Bagwell’s:
Career: 449 HR (38th), .297 BA, 1529 RBI (52nd),
Now guess who played in the steroid era and has been speculated to have roided?
interesting. 
 
Manny Ramirez, 31.1% – I get it. More personality backlash. I’ll lay off this year since it’s still early, but if he doesn’t get a Bonds/Clemens-like bump, something is wrong. Maybe it’s a bit much for people to stomach that he was literally busted BUT:
.312, 547hr, 1831rbi, .996 (!) OPS, 8 consecutive top-ten MVP finishes. oh yeah, those comps:
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Gary Sheffield, 11.1% these are his numbers with all-time ranks:
Career: 509 HR (26th), .292 BA, 1676 RBI (28th)
253 sb to boot
and THESE comps, literally all HoFers:
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Sammy Sosa, 11.1% 609 hr is sweet, but to me – not an HoFer. I just can’t do it. nothing much additional to his game – .273 and a somewhat surprisingly low .878 OPS with six consecutive top-ten MVP. i mean i won’t cry if he gets in as long as McGwire gets in but
 
Larry Walker, 25.9% cool player, good player but .313, 383hr, 1311rbi just needs to be more impressive with more than half a career in Colorado.
Looks like we’re set to have a great crop of HoFers for the next few years. Regardless, always great to speculate toward year-end. Happy New Year to all, here’s to a great 2017 and beyond.

Baseball Nerdfriends: advise (modern day HoF)

So my pops and I attended the Dodger game tonight, and in the course of conversation, the Hall of Fame arose. . .we thought about which modern-day (post-roid) ballplayers are locks for the Hall. This Excludes young dynamos such as Kemp, Cain, Trout (!), etc, that are sub-30 years old. . .accordingly, we came up with a grand total of. . .

SEVEN

four of whom play for the Yankees:
Jeter
Ichiro
A-Rod
Mo Rivera

the non-Yankees include:
Thome
Chipper
Pujols

Notable ‘perhaps soon’ names included:
Miggy Cabrera
Verlander
Sabathia
Lincecum
Pedroia
Cano
Fielder

But that’s IT. Two points here: 1) any omissions? 2) this list is conspicuously light on players that started their career between ’95-’04, eg Roid Era players. I mean has there been a ten year span with only SEVEN players that started their careers entering the Hall? Hmmm . . .

Thoughts? Omissions?

The Proto-Pujols: Frank Thomas Retires

Frank Thomas is set to announce his retirement today.
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Frank Thomas was Albert Pujols before there was an Albert Pujols. From 1991 – 1997, The Big Hurt was THE preeminent hitter in the game. The most feared – and consistent – right-hander since Joe DiMaggio, Thomas walked much more than he struck out, utilized his amazing plate discipline, raw strength and sublime hand-eye coordination to produce numbers that hadn’t been reached in seven straight seasons since Ted Williams.

I’ll always remember the agonizing decision over whether to draft Thomas or Ken Griffey Jr. first in our proto-fantasy leagues, front yard baseball. Being that Kirby Puckett & Don Mattingly were our respective ‘protected players,’ Jared would always draft the lefty, Griffey Jr. Being a right-hander, I was more smitten with the burly White Sox first baseman, the one who legend had it used to block for Bo Jackson when they played at Auburn together.

It was the awkward Frank Thomas 1990 Topps card – of him playing in the field, of all things – that first introduced me to the former fullback, but it was the clean, old school Comiskey, pre-gangsta White Sox unis Frank Thomas 1990 Leaf that had card collectors going crazy. That Walt Hriniak follow-through would come to symbolize Thomas’s swing, and help revolutionize the approach of the modern day power hitter. In his prime, he was the proto-Pujols.
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Well-spoken and ready with an amicable grin, Frank Thomas is now pursuing a career in broadcasting as he awaits results of the 2015 Hall of Fame voting, of which he should be a first ballot inductee.

McGwire Steroids Admission

The McGwire steroids admission is not so much a surprise as a cathartic release for Big Red.  A good person by all counts, he was clearly pained when he didn’t want “to talk about the past” and was living under a self-imposed exile from baseball until good ol’ Tony LaRussa dragged him back to be the hitting coach for the Cardinals this year.

He knew that he’d eventually need to talk about the past, and the surprise is not so much the admission, but the level of detail – Big Mac outlined the years of usage, and his opinion on how successful he was/wasn’t in roided years versus non-roid years.  Here’s the testimony, as well as the beginning of the AP story (Below).

Also note – this definitely affects his Hall of Fame chances, and I think it will paradoxically have a POSITIVE influence on votes.  I realize most BBWAA members are curmudgeonly, white, male & self-righteous, but there was a certain charm possessed by McGwire; it may have been that he saved the game, it may have been his prodigious blasts – I think more than anything, voters were waiting for an admission before really giving him his chance.  We’ll see what happens a year from now.

McGwire apologizes to La Russa, Selig

Associated Press

NEW YORK — Mark McGwire finally came clean Monday, admitting he used steroids when he broke baseball’s home run record in 1998.

McGwire said in a statement sent to The Associated Press on Monday that he used steroids on and off for nearly a decade.

McGwire statement

McGwireText of the statement Mark McGwire issued Monday, admitting he used steroids during his career:

“Now that I have become the hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals, I have the chance to do something that I wish I was able to do five years ago.

I never knew when, but I always knew this day would come. It’s time for me to talk about the past and to confirm what people have suspected. I used steroids during my playing career and I apologize. I remember trying steroids very briefly in the 1989/1990 off season and then after I was injured in 1993, I used steroids again. I used them on occasion throughout the ’90s, including during the 1998 season.

I wish I had never touched steroids. It was foolish and it was a mistake. I truly apologize. Looking back, I wish I had never played during the steroid era.

During the mid-’90s, I went on the DL seven times and missed 228 games over five years. I experienced a lot of injuries, including a ribcage strain, a torn left heel muscle, a stress fracture of the left heel, and a torn right heel muscle. It was definitely a miserable bunch of years and I told myself that steroids could help me recover faster. I thought they would help me heal and prevent injuries, too.

I’m sure people will wonder if I could have hit all those home runs had I never taken steroids. I had good years when I didn’t take any and I had bad years when I didn’t take any. I had good years when I took steroids and I had bad years when I took steroids. But no matter what, I shouldn’t have done it and for that I’m truly sorry.

Baseball is really different now — it’s been cleaned up. The commissioner and the players’ association implemented testing and they cracked down, and I’m glad they did.

I’m grateful to the Cardinals for bringing me back to baseball. I want to say thank you to Cardinals owner Mr. DeWitt, to my GM, John Mozeliak, and to my manager, Tony La Russa. I can’t wait to put the uniform on again and to be back on the field in front of the great fans in Saint Louis. I’ve always appreciated their support and I intend to earn it again, this time as hitting coach. I’m going to pour myself into this job and do everything I can to help the Cardinals hitters become the best players for years to come.

After all this time, I want to come clean. I was not in a position to do that five years ago in my congressional testimony, but now I feel an obligation to discuss this and to answer questions about it. I’ll do that, and then I just want to help my team.”

“I wish I had never touched steroids,” McGwire said in a statement. “It was foolish and it was a mistake. I truly apologize. Looking back, I wish I had never played during the steroid era.”

Only Andre Dawson Makes the Hall

I personally would have Roberto Alomar along with Dawson, and down the road McGwire, Larkin and Tim Raines (best leadoff hitter outside of Rickey for about 15 years). Perhaps Dale Murphy too – Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven need each other’s shortcomings (give Bert Jack’s postseason or give Jack Bert’s regular season and they’re both shoo-ins). McGriff was VERY low, but tough era for the Crime Dog. Love that guy.

2010 Hall of Fame Inductions
2010 Results

Player Total Votes Percentage
Andre Dawson 420 77.9%
Bert Blyleven 400 74.2%
Roberto Alomar 397 73.7%
Jack Morris 282 52.3%
Barry Larkin 278 51.6%
Lee Smith 255 47.3%
Edgar Martinez 195 36.2%
Tim Raines 164 30.4%
Mark McGwire 128 23.7%
Alan Trammell 121 22.4%
Fred McGriff 116 21.5%
Don Mattingly 87 16.1%
Dave Parker 82 15.2%
Dale Murphy 63 5.9%
Harold Baines 33 6.1%
Andres Galarraga 22 4.1%
Robin Ventura 7 1.3%
Ellis Burks 2 0.4%
Eric Karros 2 0.4%
Kevin Appier 1 0.2%
Pat Hentgen 1 0.2%
David Segui 1 0.2%
Mike Jackson 0 0%
Ray Lankford 0 0%
Shane Reynolds 0 0%
Todd Zeile 0 0%